Bitcoin Hits $100K, Rally or Bull Trap?

Portalkripto.com — Bitcoin has broken above the $100,000 mark for the first time since February 2025, sparking excitement across the crypto market. But as bullish sentiment surges, analysts are cautioning traders: could this rally be a bull trap?

BTC rose 4.3% on May 9, briefly touching $104,150 during the late New York session. The sharp rise triggered more than $800 million in short liquidations—the largest since 2021—highlighting a significant shift in market sentiment.

Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index surged from 65 to 73 in just 24 hours, reflecting growing investor optimism—or greed.

Bull Flag Targets $182K, But Risks Loom

On the technical front, Bitcoin recently broke out of a bull flag pattern on the weekly chart, with analysts projecting a target as high as $182,200—roughly a 75% gain from current levels.

“Bitcoin is currently trading above the 5, 10, and 20-day moving averages, with the MACD remaining bullish,” said crypto analyst GemXBT. Still, the analyst warned that the RSI is above 70, indicating overbought conditions that could precede a correction.

Short-Term Target: $106K

Crypto analyst AlphaBTC believes Bitcoin could still push higher in the short term. Referencing Fibonacci levels and an ascending price channel, he estimates BTC may reach $106,000 before facing strong resistance.

“I like how the Fibonacci levels align with support zones. It makes me think BTC has one more leg up before correcting,” he posted on X.

Long-Term Predictions: $170K, $500K… or a Trap?

Some crypto figures are doubling down on bold predictions. Egrag Crypto foresees a $170,000 cycle top—but only if Bitcoin can close above its all-time high of $109,000.

“Anything less than a weekly close above $109K is just a bull trap,” Egrag warned. “Without that breakout, we’re likely just retracing.”

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) echoed a far more bullish outlook, suggesting Bitcoin could surge to $500,000 or even $1 million in 2025, fueled by institutional adoption, government accumulation, and pro-crypto policies from the Trump administration.

Don’t Chase the Rally Blindly

Despite the optimism, several market watchers are urging caution. The massive short liquidations and growing greed index could signal overheating.

“While momentum looks strong, failing to sustain above $100K could trigger a steep correction,” one trader noted. “This may just be a bull trap if price action doesn’t hold.”